Are we finally on the verge of a ceasefire in Gaza?

By the time you read this, what I’m about to tell you may already sound like a lie.

At this hour, Hamas has agreed to parts of a “peace” plan put forward by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week.

But because Israel and Netanyahu have a long history of sabotaging deals while stringing the world along, tonight’s reality could look completely different by morning.

Here’s what we know right now:

• Late Friday, Hamas said it agreed to parts of a 20-point peace plan presented by Trump and Netanyahu earlier in the week, including releasing all of the remaining 48 hostages—20 of whom are believed to be alive.
• Hamas did not comment on two chronic sticking points: Israeli withdrawal and Hamas’ disarmament. Still, Trump responded Friday, saying Hamas is showing that it’s “ready for lasting PEACE” and called on Israel to “immediately” stop bombing Gaza.
• On Saturday afternoon, Trump said Israel had agreed to an “initial withdrawal line” and was waiting for Hamas to sign off. If Hamas accepts that “line,” Trump said the ceasefire will be immediate, hostages will be released within 72 hours, and both sides will discuss next steps.
• As with January’s ceasefire agreement, the second phase would involve negotiations on Israel’s withdrawal—but Netanyahu refused last time and broke the ceasefire.
• Al Jazeera reports that while Saturday’s attacks were less intense, they continued. Since Trump’s call to stop, Israeli strikes have killed at least 36 people.
• On Saturday afternoon, Hamas said, “The Zionist occupation army continues to commit its horrific crimes and massacres against our Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”
• The White House says Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are heading to Egypt, where all sides will meet to discuss the deal over the coming days.
• Speaking to Axios, Trump said his advisors had warned that Netanyahu still had “reservations,” but that when he spoke directly to the PM, Netanyahu “agreed to move forward.” Trump also said he enlisted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to pressure Hamas to accept the deal.

As of tonight, 67,000 people have been killed. At least 440—including 147 children—have died from starvation caused by Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid.

1. The federal government shut down on Tuesday night after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a budget deal. Republicans are falsely blaming Democrats, claiming they caused the shutdown because Republicans wouldn’t agree to fund health insurance for “millions of illegal aliens.” Democrats say that’s a lie—the fight is about restoring health care subsidies that millions of Americans rely on. Without them, premiums will more than double or coverage will vanish entirely. Democrats say the shutdown was their only leverage to restore the funding. More in top story.
2. On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth summoned hundreds of military leaders to Quantico for a partisan lecture, warning them to “get in line or get out.” He said the Pentagon was returning to a “warrior ethos” with no room for “wokeness,” “dudes in dresses,” “gender delusions,” “beardos,” or “fat generals.” Women will be held to male fitness standards. The department will also review definitions of hazing and harassment—implying that “minor infractions” could be wiped from records. “No more frivolous complaints… no more walking on eggshells,” Hegseth said. You can do the math.
3. Even more alarming, a visibly exhausted Trump gave a speech suggesting some “dangerous [U.S.] cities” should be used as a “training ground for our military.” He added, “We’re under invasion from within. No different than a foreign enemy but more difficult in many ways because they don’t wear uniforms.” AP writes: “The dual messages underscored the Trump administration’s efforts not only to reshape Pentagon culture but to enlist military resources for the president’s domestic priorities, including quelling unrest and violent crime.”
4. Israel illegally intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla and arrested activists and humanitarians on board who were trying to deliver life-saving aid to Gaza. The members of the flotilla—42 boats carrying more than 400 people from dozens of countries—were taken to Israeli prisons. The interception sparked protests around the world Thursday night. Some activists have since been deported. Swedish officials were allowed to visit detained activist Greta Thunberg, who said she was “detained in a cell infested with bedbugs, with too little food and water,” and forced to pose with an Israeli flag. Another detainee said Israelis “dragged” her by the hair and beat her. (Guardian)
5. After bombing three boats in Venezuelan waters—claiming they were drug traffickers—Trump declared the U.S. is now “at war with drug cartels.” The AP obtained a memo calling the plan “startling in scope.” Pentagon officials couldn’t even provide a list of which groups were designated “terrorist organizations.” NYT coverage describes confusion and alarm among lawmakers briefed on the move.

NEXT WEEK:

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits the White House to discuss tariffs.
• James Comey is scheduled to be arraigned on Thursday.
• The Supreme Court term begins Monday.
• Tuesday marks the second anniversary of October 7.

• Netanyahu visited the White House on Monday, where he and Trump announced they had reached agreement on a peace plan—but refused to take questions from reporters.
• The White House also said Netanyahu apologized to Qatari leaders for violating their sovereignty by launching an attack that killed five people, including a Qatari security officer.
• While in the U.S., Netanyahu met with American influencers about “restoring America’s faith in Israel,” saying their greatest weapon right now is social media—especially TikTok. Influencers are reportedly paid as much as $7,000 per post and required to produce 25–30 pieces of pro-Israel content each month. A U.S.-based firm has been paid $900,000 to coordinate the effort.

This week, I went down a rabbit hole researching Democratic and Republican talking points about the government shutdown.

Both sides were so adamant about their “truth” that I needed to see for myself what was actually going on. Despite everything I’ve seen in politics, I still couldn’t imagine one side would blatantly lie — that there had to be some nuance I was missing.

I was wrong.

Republicans are bald-faced liars.

Why This Is Happening

Every year, Congress has to pass a budget by September 30. If they don’t, the government shuts down the next day — October 1.

Republicans claim they had a “clean” bill — just the basics to keep the government open — that Democrats refused to support.

Democrats say that’s not true. Republicans drafted the bill without their input, and Democrats want to include two things:

1. Extending health insurance subsidies set to expire at year’s end including immigrants who are in the country legally.
2. Restoring Medicare funding after Republicans cut nearly a trillion dollars earlier this year.

Republicans were unwilling to negotiate. When Trump heard what Democrats wanted, a White House official told Politico his response to them was: “Go fuck yourself.”

Trump even threatened Democrats publicly: “We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible… like cutting programs they like.”

The Lie About “Free Health Care for Illegal Immigrants”

Republicans are telling voters the government shut down because Democrats want to give illegal immigrants free health care. That’s a lie — a deliberate distortion meant to inflame voters.

Here’s what’s true:

• Federal law prohibits undocumented immigrants from receiving full Medicaid or CHIP benefits. That is not changing nor are Democrats asking for it.
• One of the provisions that Democrats are fighting for is Medicaid funding to reimburse hospitals for providing life-saving emergency care — treatment doctors are legally required to give anyone, regardless of immigration status or ability to pay. Without it, rural and smaller hospitals face immense financial challenges.
• Democrats want to restore federal reimbursements to states for that emergency care — which amounts to just a tiny fraction of the overall Medicaid budget (about 0.4%) – and even less that goes to treating undocumented immigrants.

This isn’t “free health care.” It’s repayment to hospitals and doctors who save lives — people they are legally obligated to treat.

So, Republicans are unwilling to negotiate because .4% of the Medicaid budget might go to paying to save an undocumented immigrant's life.

Lawfully present immigrants can qualify for Medicaid and CHIP but face restrictions, like a five-year waiting period. They can also buy coverage through the ACA Marketplace using tax credits — just like American citizens. Without an extension of the subsidies, they may not be able to afford health care.

So when Republicans say Democrats shut down the government to fund “illegal immigrant health care,” they’re lying. They’re turning a narrow, humane reimbursement policy into a culture-war weapon.

The Impact

Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought — a key architect of Project 2025 — said government employee layoffs are “imminent,” citing the shutdown as justification. The cuts are expected to be permanent.

Roughly 750,000 federal workers are being furloughed.

• TSA agents and immigration enforcement will still work — without pay.
• Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid continue.
• Mail is still delivered; the Postal Service is self-funded.
• Some national parks stay open, but monuments and museums will close.
• Research at agencies like NIH halts.

If this drags on, people will feel it fast: no paychecks. About 150,000 federal workers have already taken buyouts — the biggest exodus in 80 years. Punchbowl News called it “a damaging loss of institutional expertise.”

Both Sides Are Playing Politics — But with Wildly Different Goals

Republicans want Democrats to look bad ahead of next year’s midterms.

Also, Trump wants to purge more federal jobs — and a shutdown gives him cover to do it.

Democrats, on the other hand, see this as their only leverage. They don’t control the White House or Congress, and their voters are demanding they stop rolling over.

So they’re using the shutdown as their last available tool to fight for health care subsidies and restore funding Republicans gutted.

As Senate leader Chuck Schumer put it: if they don’t fight here, things “will get worse with or without [a shutdown], because Trump is lawless.”

What Happens Next

Now it’s a game of chicken. Democrats could cave — or Trump, obsessed with optics, could cut a deal that undercuts his own party.

Related: While these funds are not directly tied to the government, the optics aren’t great:

• While hundreds of thousands of government employees are furloughed or working without pay, Senate Republicans went ahead with a fundraiser on Georgia’s exclusive Sea Island.
• And construction on Trump’s new $200 million White House ballroom — a project exempt from the shutdown — continues.

IMMIGRATION:

• Federal officers literally “rappelled from helicopters” onto a Chicago apartment building during a midnight immigration raid. “As other agents worked their way through the building from the bottom, they kicked down doors and threw flash bang grenades, rounding up adults and screaming children alike, detaining them in zip-ties and arresting dozens,” according to local reporting.
• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said the White House has called up 300 National Guard members to deploy in his state. Their assignments remain unclear.
• Apple and Google have blocked apps that crowdsourced ICE agent sightings — similar to how Waze alerts users to speed traps — after the DOJ said the apps endangered agents. Most users say they use the apps for safety or to protect loved ones.
• WIRED reports that ICE is hiring 30 contractors to surveil social media: “Their job: scour Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, and other platforms, converting posts and profiles into fresh leads for enforcement raids.” Contractors will staff two monitoring centers around the clock, using subscription-based surveillance tools.
• After firing an ICE officer for violently throwing a distressed woman to the ground — all caught on tape — DHS has rehired him.
• Trump fired dozens of experienced immigration judges and plans to replace them with hundreds of inexperienced military lawyers to clear the massive case backlog. The Brennan Center warns this “further erodes the line between the military and civilian government.”
• The Trump Administration canceled $7.6 billion in clean energy grants — all in states that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. “The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed overturning a 2009 finding that climate change threatens public health. Many climate scientists have criticized the EPA effort as biased and misleading.” (AP)
• The FBI suspended an agent who refused to “perp walk” former FBI Director James Comey, calling it inappropriate for a white-collar defendant. Comey’s arraignment is scheduled for Thursday.

SHAKEDOWNS:

• The government is threatening nine American universities — including Vanderbilt, UPenn, Dartmouth, USC, and MIT — to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence” by November 21 or risk losing federal research grants, student loans, and tax benefits.
• Trump suggested Harvard could buy peace by investing $500 million in his initiatives. “Then their sins are forgiven,” he said. The New York Times reports the university has tapped billionaire Stephen Schwarzman — a Trump ally — to mediate.
• YouTube has agreed to pay Trump $22 million to settle a flimsy lawsuit over his post–January 6 suspension. Meta ($25M) and X ($10M) have also settled. The payouts will go toward funding Trump’s new $200 million White House ballroom.
• A federal judge ruled that the Trump Administration violated the Constitution by deporting students who supported Palestinian rights. The Reagan-appointed judge said policies by Marco Rubio and Kristi Noem were designed to “strike fear into… pro-Palestinian individuals” and silence lawful speech.

COURTS:

• The Supreme Court ruled against Trump, allowing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her post.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — a former Epstein neighbor — called him “the greatest blackmailer ever” in a podcast interview.
• Trump claimed the FBI instigated the January 6 attack, but current Director Kash Patel told Fox News agents were sent for “crowd control,” not provocation.
• Oracle founder Larry Ellison is poised to co-own TikTok. His son David recently took over Paramount and CBS News, installing Bari Weiss in a top editorial role. The Washington Post reports the family’s dual influence is reshaping media power.
• Drop Site News found that Ellison personally vetted Marco Rubio’s loyalty to Israel before backing his political rise.

• Four people were killed in a Michigan church shooting, and another attack in a British synagogue left one dead after police gunfire.
• A second victim has died from the Texas immigrant detention shooting.
• The Catholic Church has appointed Dame Sarah Mullally as the first female Archbishop of Canterbury.
• Pope Leo waded into U.S. politics this week, calling out so-called “pro-life” hypocrisy: “Someone who says, ‘I’m against abortion but I’m in agreement with the inhuman treatment of immigrants in the United States,’ I don’t know if that’s pro-life.” (MSNBC)